Category Archives: Budget & Debt

Seeing Through the Fog of Federal Budget Forecasting

Every summer since 2010 I’ve charted the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) long-term projection of the federal debt, noting the similarity with the Fourth of July fireworks. But during these years, the CBO has changed its procedures several times, fogging … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

CBO’s New Way to Evaluate Fiscal Consolidation Plans

In its recently released budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office projects that this year’s federal deficit will increase by 35% from last year to $590 billion, and that the debt will rise from $14 trillion to $23 trillion by 2026, or … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt, Fiscal Policy and Reforms

An Economic and Security Policy Blueprint for America

A timely new policy book, Blueprint for America, edited by George P. Shultz, is being released today online for the first time. The release coincides with the start of platform writing by Republicans this week and Democrats the following week, … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy and Reforms, International Economics, Monetary Policy, Regulatory Policy

Debt Explosion Still Looks Like July 4th Fireworks

Six years ago, on July 4, 2010, in a post on this blog, I plotted the CBO’s projection of the ratio of federal debt to GDP because it reminded me so much of the Fourth of July fireworks. What does … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

Surprising Findings at the Macro Handbook Conferences

In order to further progress on the new Handbook of Macroeconomics, which will be published next year, Harald Uhlig and I, the co-editors of the Handbook, hosted two conferences at Stanford and Chicago in April. Harald and I attended both … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy and Reforms, International Economics

Extreme Policies Are a Big Problem, Despite Naysayer

In a recent post, Paul Krugman commented on my Wall Street Journal article published this week. He tries to go after two paragraphs in particular, but misses on both. In the next to last paragraph of the article, I argue that … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

What Line Will the House-Senate Budget Conference Draw?

The new House-Senate Budget Conference chaired by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray is supposed to reconcile the House and Senate budget resolutions passed earlier this year make a set of new recommendations.  The House and Senate will then vote on … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt