Category Archives: Budget & Debt

Debt Explosion Still Looks Like July 4th Fireworks

Six years ago, on July 4, 2010, in a post on this blog, I plotted the CBO’s projection of the ratio of federal debt to GDP because it reminded me so much of the Fourth of July fireworks. What does … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

Surprising Findings at the Macro Handbook Conferences

In order to further progress on the new Handbook of Macroeconomics, which will be published next year, Harald Uhlig and I, the co-editors of the Handbook, hosted two conferences at Stanford and Chicago in April. Harald and I attended both … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy and Reforms, International Economics

Extreme Policies Are a Big Problem, Despite Naysayer

In a recent post, Paul Krugman commented on my Wall Street Journal article published this week. He tries to go after two paragraphs in particular, but misses on both. In the next to last paragraph of the article, I argue that … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

What Line Will the House-Senate Budget Conference Draw?

The new House-Senate Budget Conference chaired by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray is supposed to reconcile the House and Senate budget resolutions passed earlier this year make a set of new recommendations.  The House and Senate will then vote on … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

Debt Explosion Unchanged: Looks the Same as Five Years Ago

The CBO’s 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook released this week made a lot of news because it appeared to paint a new and surprisingly bleak budget picture. But in reality, the budget outlook is little changed from CBO’s long-term budget outlook … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

CBO Is Late, Fireworks Postponed

For the past several years, I contributed to the 4th of July fireworks by posting (here and here for example) on CBO’s latest explosive debt projections, regularly released as part of its long-term outlook just before Independence Day.  But this year the CBO is way … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

Coding Errors, Austerity, and Exploding Debt

The discovery of errors in the Reinhart-Rogoff paper on the growth-debt nexus is already impacting policy. A participant in last Friday’s G20 meetings told me that the error was a factor in the decision to omit specific deficit or debt-to-GDP … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

An Opportunity to Compare and Contrast Budgets

It is good news that we now have both House and Senate budget proposals for FY 2014 to compare and contrast. This is a first step back toward old-fashioned regular budget order which will help get the country off of … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

Investment-Unemployment Link Still On Track

When the recovery was getting started I pointed out the remarkably strong inverse relationship between fixed investment as a share of GDP and the unemployment rate, and argued that a policy that focused on getting businesses to invest more would … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt

A Debt Limit Strategy Rather Than Tactics

The recent debate about the debt limit focuses on the negative economic impact of a decision by the government not to increase the debt limit. That’s why President Obama says he is asking for clean debt limit increase—one not linked … Continue reading

Posted in Budget & Debt