Category Archives: Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Surprising Findings at the Macro Handbook Conferences
In order to further progress on the new Handbook of Macroeconomics, which will be published next year, Harald Uhlig and I, the co-editors of the Handbook, hosted two conferences at Stanford and Chicago in April. Harald and I attended both … Continue reading
First Principles Versus Secular Stagnation
With real GDP and employment data now in for all of 2013, the recovery still looks about as weak as ever. Sure, it’s good news that growth picked up again in the 3rd and 4th quarter, but the three updated … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms, Slow Recovery
Shoven Says: Defer Social Security Benefits
John Shoven’s practical advice on when people should start taking Social Security benefits is rightly getting increased attention. The economics is quite straight forward, and baby boomers should pay careful attention. So should the Social Security Administration. This table from John’s Policy … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Paul Krugman is Wrong about Fiscal Policy Research
Over the weekend, Paul Krugman responded to my post in which I show that the slowdown in state and local government purchases of goods and services is a consequence, rather than a cause, of the weak recovery. My basic point … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Krugman’s Claims Are Wrong
Paul Krugman commented early this morning on the Wall Street Journal oped by John Cogan and me. Our oped is based on our research paper with Volker Wieland and Maik Wolters which shows that there are beneficial effects on the economy—in … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Keep the Sequester Totals But Add Flexibility Within
Scare stories about the automatic reduction in federal spending to start on March 1—commonly called the sequester—fall mainly into two categories. First are the concerns that reducing every discretionary budget account by the same percentage—the “meat-axe” approach—would not allow government … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
A Way to Avoid the Fiscal Cliff without Creating Another One
So far the fiscal cliff debate has mainly been about whether tax revenues should be on or off the table with little mention of spending. But the economics of the debate—as distinct from the raw politics—make no sense without considering … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Strengthening of America
Many have been asking me to write more about the fiscal cliff. As we watch the election returns today, I would keep two straightforward things in mind. First, the fiscal cliff was not created by aliens from outerspace. It is another poor … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Getting Tax Reform History Right
“For the past 75 years or so, tax reform has been defined by a tradeoff: broaden the tax base and lower rates,” as tax historian Joseph Thorndike explained in a recent article. That’s the framework behind the Romney tax reform … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
The GDP Impact a U.S. Fiscal Consolidation Strategy
Three and half years ago, in February 2009, John Cogan, Volker Wieland, Tobias Cwik and I estimated what the impact of the 2009 stimulus package (ARRA) would be. Our estimates, obtained by simulating modern macroeconomic models, were much smaller than those … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
