Author Archives: John Taylor
A Chart for the Fourth of July
Just before Americans started celebrating the July 4th weekend, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook. The chart shows the CBO projection of the federal debt (as a percent of GDP) assuming that current law … Continue reading
Posted in Budget & Debt
Comments Off on A Chart for the Fourth of July
Financial Reform with False Remedies and Errors of Omission
A common criticism of the Dodd-Frank bill keeps coming up as more people wade through the several hundred sections, or at least summaries of them. This common criticism is that the bill contains many false remedies and errors of omission. … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Crisis
Comments Off on Financial Reform with False Remedies and Errors of Omission
Why Was Poland the Only EU Country to Avoid Recession?
Poland is the only country in the European Union which did not have a recession during 2009, as shown in this chart. And among all the OECD countries, Poland had the best real growth performance in 2009. I visited Poland … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
Comments Off on Why Was Poland the Only EU Country to Avoid Recession?
Macroeconomic Lessons from The Great Deviation
Each year for the past 25 years the National Bureau of Economic Research has sponsored a conference on macroeconomics with a special emphasis on empirical research with policy relevance. The results are published in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Initiated by … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
Comments Off on Macroeconomic Lessons from The Great Deviation
Is an Orderly Restructuring of Greek Debt Feasible?
Many economists argue that the Greek government, even with the help of the European/IMF rescue package, will eventually have to restructure its debt. Just last Friday in a Bloomberg News story Thomas Mayer, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, said this … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
Comments Off on Is an Orderly Restructuring of Greek Debt Feasible?
Teaching What Is Exciting, Wonderful, and Fun…at All Levels
People often ask me what it’s like to teach both introductory economics courses and Ph.D. level economics courses in the same academic year, which I have done regularly for many years at Stanford including this year. The courses are at … Continue reading
Posted in Teaching Economics
Comments Off on Teaching What Is Exciting, Wonderful, and Fun…at All Levels
Is the G20 Starting to Get Back on Track?
This past weekend’s meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Korea ended with a rejection of calls for more fiscal stimulus. This is a marked change from their meeting held just over a month ago in … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
Comments Off on Is the G20 Starting to Get Back on Track?
The Fed’s Swap Loans and Libor – OIS Spread
For about two years—from August 2007 to September 2009—fluctuations in the spread between dollar Libor and the overnight index swap (OIS) served as a valuable quantitative indicator of financial stress in the interbank loan market. It also served as a … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
Comments Off on The Fed’s Swap Loans and Libor – OIS Spread
The Administration and the IMF on the Multiplier
In a soon to be published paper, several economists at the International Monetary Fund report estimates of government spending multipliers which are much smaller than those previously reported by the U.S. Administration. In order to obtain the estimates the IMF … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
Comments Off on The Administration and the IMF on the Multiplier
The Euro’s Post-Package Slide
In a column Central Banks are Losing Credibility published in the Financial Times last Tuesday, just after the announcement of the European rescue plan, I noted that the euro’s quick set-back hours after its initial boost was a harbinger of … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
Comments Off on The Euro’s Post-Package Slide
Economics One 