Author Archives: John Taylor
Beware of a Revival of Misleading Economic Claims
As the 2012 campaign season gains steam we are beginning to hear the same economic claims we heard two years ago during the mid-term election. In 2010 much of the debate was about (1) whether the 2009 stimulus package was … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Gross Capital Flows Grow in Importance
My Wall Street Journal article yesterday Monetary Policy and the Next Crisis touches on a growing research area in international finance that focusses on gross capital flows as distinct from the current account. For example, in his Ely Lecture at … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
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Debt Fireworks Continue On This Independence Day
On Independence Day two years ago I wrote a piece comparing America’s exploding debt projection (from the 2009 and 2010 Congressional Budget Office’s Long Term Budget Outlook) with the fireworks on the 4th of July. As I later put it in … Continue reading
Posted in Budget & Debt
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How Departures From Economic Freedom Can Affect Freedom In General
In a recent speech at Stanford (video here) former Wells Fargo Chairman and CEO Dick Kovacevich told the full story of how he was forced to take TARP funds even though Wells Fargo did not need or want the funds. The … Continue reading
Posted in Regulatory Policy
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The BIS on “The Limits of Monetary Policy”
Each year the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) hosts the world’s central bankers–the BIS shareholders–at their Annual General Meeting in Basel, Switzerland. At the meeting held today, the BIS issued their Annual Report which addresses key monetary policy issues. BIS analyses … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
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The GDP Impact a U.S. Fiscal Consolidation Strategy
Three and half years ago, in February 2009, John Cogan, Volker Wieland, Tobias Cwik and I estimated what the impact of the 2009 stimulus package (ARRA) would be. Our estimates, obtained by simulating modern macroeconomic models, were much smaller than those … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
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Fed Bought 77% of Federal Debt Increase in 2011: The Data Source
During an interview on CNBC Squawk Box this morning and in my Wall Street Journal oped of last Friday (June 1), I mentioned that the Federal Reserve purchased 77% of the net increase in the debt by the Federal government … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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A Tale of Two Memos to Two President-Elects
Today the Wall Street Journal dedicated more than three-fourths of a page to publishing large excerpts from a 1980 memo to president-elect Ronald Reagan from George Shultz and other economists who had advised Reagan in the presidential campaign. In my … Continue reading
Posted in Teaching Economics
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Big Mac and Big Macro
One of the most important things for students to learn in introductory economics is that differences in productivity are the main reason for differences in real wages over time and across countries. In his presidential address this year before the American … Continue reading
Posted in Teaching Economics
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More Evidence on What Is Holding the Economy Back
Milton Friedman’s “plucking model” should be back in fashion now because it reminds us of the historical fact that throughout American history—until now—the deeper the recession, the faster the recovery. I like to bring a guitar to talks and lectures … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Economics One 