Author Archives: John Taylor
Exploding Debt Still Threatens America
Back in May 2009 I wrote “Exploding Debt Threatens America” in the Financial Times. Unfortunately the federal debt is still exploding, but fortunately we are learning more about the threat thanks to research reported and carefully explained in a new … Continue reading
Posted in Budget & Debt
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An Unusually Weak Recovery as Usually Defined
The view that the current U.S. recovery is unusually weak compared to past U.S. recoveries from recessions with financial crises is gaining more and more support. Economists David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan in an article posted on Jim Hamilton and … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Weak Recovery Denial
Paul Krugman disagrees with my recent post that the recovery is weak compared to recoveries from past serious U.S. recessions including those associated with financial crises. I’ve been writing about the reasons for weak recovery for two years, but the … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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More on the Unusually Weak Recovery
The weak recovery continues to be a major topic. Over the weekend, Russ Roberts issued the second episode of his three part “chartcast” series on the topic, which is based on interviews with me and builds on his highly-regarded podcast series, … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Getting Tax Reform History Right
“For the past 75 years or so, tax reform has been defined by a tradeoff: broaden the tax base and lower rates,” as tax historian Joseph Thorndike explained in a recent article. That’s the framework behind the Romney tax reform … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
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Simple Proof That Strong Growth Has Typically Followed Financial Crises
People are looking for answers to why the economy is growing so slowly. Is the answer that economic growth is normally weak following deep recessions and financial crises, as, for example, Kenneth Arrow argued in the presidential election event with me this week … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Recent Part-time Job Increase Is Not a Good Sign
Many have noted the large September increase in “part-time employment for economic reasons” reported in the BLS household survey. The 582,000 increase in these part time jobs caused total employment to rise by 873,000—a major reason for the decrease of the … Continue reading
Posted in Regulatory Policy
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From Economic Scare Stories to the Other Side of Reality
Twenty years ago this month my colleague Bob Hall and I wrote an op-ed for the New York Times about how “in recent months press reporting about the economy has become so pessimistic that it has completely lost touch with … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Regulatory Expansion Versus Economic Expansion in Two Recoveries
Much can be learned by comparing the very weak recovery from the 2007-2009 recession with the very strong recovery from the 1981-82 recession. Both recessions were severe, and U.S. history shows that severe recessions tend to be followed by fast … Continue reading
Posted in Regulatory Policy
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The Eroding Effect of QE3 on Mortgage Spreads
It has been a week now since the Fed’s QE3 announcement that it would be again buying mortgage backed securities (MBS). There was an initial decline in the mortgage spread on the announcement but, as often happens, that initial impact … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Economics One 