Author Archives: John Taylor
Valuable Dissent to the Transportation Research Board’s Special Stimulus Report
This past week the Transportation Research Board released its Special Report from the “Committee on Economic and Employment Benefits of Transportation Investments in Response to Economic Downturns.” The report evaluated the 2009 stimulus and in particular the part of the stimulus … Continue reading
Posted in Stimulus Impact
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Will the Real “Secular Stagnation Thesis” Please Stand Up
Last Thursday I published an oped in the Wall Street Journal criticizing the new “secular stagnation” view as put forth by Larry Summers in a talk at an IMF conference in November. The topic was also the focus of debate at … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Catching Up On Some Hot Debates Over Monetary Policy
There have been a flurry of debates and discussions about monetary policy in December, and people have been emailing and tweeting me asking for the links. So here are: — some links to segments (with some overlap) produced by CNBC … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Clarifying Some Key Taylor Rule Calculations
Justin Lahart has an article in the Wall Street Journal today about the Taylor Rule and the time inconsistency of the Fed’s forward guidance. I agree with the spirit of the piece, but unfortunately the article misquotes the Taylor rule … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Response to an Email about QE and a Letter
Recently I received an email with this question about my views on quantitative easing and a letter I signed with others: “I have a question about the letter you signed back in 2010 asking the Fed not to do QE2. That … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Two Amazing Charts
Research by Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin is providing solid evidence that the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 has been due to cyclical factors–the recession and slow recovery–rather than to demographic factors. In other words, the … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Krugman’s Slack
In a piece yesterday, Paul Krugman disagrees with my assessment that there was more overheating than slack in the economy in the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession and financial crisis. That assessment was one part of a broader … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Crisis, Slow Recovery
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The Problem is Policy Not a Secular Decline in the Real Interest Rate
Larry Summers’ recent talk on what ails the US economy at the November 8 IMF conference is getting a lot of attention. I first heard Larry present his argument at the October 1 Brookings-Hoover conference organized by Martin Baily and me, and … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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It’s Not Doves v Hawks, It’s Rules v Discretion
For years commentators have endeavored to classify monetary policy makers into doves and hawks. Doves are said to be more concerned with unemployment. Hawks are supposedly more concerned with inflation. And because many commentators associate easy money (however one defines … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Extreme Policies Are a Big Problem, Despite Naysayer
In a recent post, Paul Krugman commented on my Wall Street Journal article published this week. He tries to go after two paragraphs in particular, but misses on both. In the next to last paragraph of the article, I argue that … Continue reading
Posted in Budget & Debt
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Economics One 