Author Archives: John Taylor
Why It’s Hard to Make the Unpopular Stimulus Look Good
Some columnists have been using the 5-year anniversary of the 2009 discretionary fiscal stimulus package to claim that it worked to jump-start the economy. It’s a tough case to make. The very word “stimulus” has become a dirty word because … Continue reading
Posted in Stimulus Impact
Leave a comment
A Small Step Toward Monetary “Coordination” at the G-20?
This weekend’s G-20 statement reiterated the concerns—largely coming from emerging market countries—about unconventional monetary policies (UMP). But the language of the central bankers and finance ministers was subtly softened. In July and October 2013 the G-20 statements contained warnings about such … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
Leave a comment
Another Anniversary: The Macro Alliteration Wars
Before we get too far away from the 5th anniversary of the 2009 stimulus signed into law on February 17, 2009 (or the 6th anniversary of the 2008 stimulus signed into law on February 13, 2008 ), it’s fun to … Continue reading
Posted in Stimulus Impact
Leave a comment
Next Time Remember the Lessons from Stimulus Packages
It’s the five-year anniversary of the 2009 stimulus package. I’ve done a slew of empirical research on the stimulus in those years from predicting in advance that its impact would be small to estimating afterwards that its impact was small. … Continue reading
Posted in Stimulus Impact
Leave a comment
Should Policymakers or Macro Models Be Taken to the Woodshed?
There’s a good debate going on about the usefulness of macro models, and in particular whether the so-called New Keynesian models let us down or even helped bring on the financial crisis and the Great Recession. This weekend Noah Smith … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Crisis, Teaching Economics
Leave a comment
The Policy Rule Debate at the Yellen Hearing
Rules-based monetary policy received special focus during Janet Yellen’s inaugural hearing and the second panel immediately following on which I was a witness. In fact, the Chairman of the Committee, Jeb Hensarling, devoted a good part of his opening questioning … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
Leave a comment
Why Did CBO Wait?
Why did the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) wait until now to inform the Congress and the rest of the country about the large negative effects of Obamacare on employment and hours of work? (See CBO Budget and Economic Outlook pp 117-127). The … Continue reading
Posted in Regulatory Policy, Teaching Economics
Leave a comment
Monetary Policy During Ben Bernanke’s Time at the Fed
Like many monetary economists, I’ve recently been approached by reporters and commentators to say a few words about monetary policy during Ben Bernanke’s time at the Fed. Back in December the Washington Bureau of the Wall Street Journal asked me … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
Leave a comment
First Principles Versus Secular Stagnation
With real GDP and employment data now in for all of 2013, the recovery still looks about as weak as ever. Sure, it’s good news that growth picked up again in the 3rd and 4th quarter, but the three updated … Continue reading
The Great Global Unwinding
If there is a common factor in the recent global market turbulence it is the inevitable unwinding of unconventional US monetary policy. Evidence for this connection appeared last May and June when the Fed started talking about tapering, and it … Continue reading
Economics One 