Category Archives: Stimulus Impact

More Evidence on Why the Stimulus Didn’t Work

Polls show that most Americans don’t believe that the stimulus package worked, but debate continues among economists. The most debated issue is the size of government purchases multiplier. Suppose that the government purchases multiplier is 1.5. Then Economics 1 students … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

TV Fiscal Stimulus Debate Reveals Some Agreement

PBS Newshour hosted a live TV debate between Mark Zandi and me yesterday on the question of whether government interventions helped or hurt the economy. The show highlighted a paper by Alan Blinder and Zandi about which I posted comments … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

More on the Blinder-Zandi Working Paper on the Crisis

Yesterday the New York Times published an article about simulations of the effects of fiscal stimulus packages and financial interventions using an old Keynesian model. The simulations were reported in an unpublished working paper by Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi. … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

Latest Data Continue To Show Little Impact of Government Stimulus on GDP

The 3.2 percent growth rate of real GDP in the first quarter (released by BEA yesterday) confirms that the recovery is looking more U-shaped than V-shaped. But it also provides further evidence that the stimulus package of 2009 has had … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

Macro Model Disagreements and Reality

Last Friday Macroeconomic Advisers (MA), a forecasting firm, posted a blog entry responding to empirical work by me and others on the “stimulus act” of 2009. I welcome the discussion, but unfortunately the blog seems to have missed the main … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

Stimulus Anniversary Blogs

With the one year anniversary of the signing of the stimulus it is useful to review the facts and data as they came in during the year. Here are the relevant posts from Economics One. Most look at actual data … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

One Year Later and More Evidence that the Stimulus is Not Working

Friday’s data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that real GDP growth rebounded to 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter from 2.2 percent in the third quarter of last year. The rebound was sharper when compared with … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

From Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Anti-Stimulus

In an interesting new paper, University of Chicago economists Thorsten Drautzburg and Harald Uhlig calculate the impact the $787 billion fiscal stimulus package passed last year. Previous research, such as the paper by John Cogan, Tobias Cwik, Volker Wieland and … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

Measuring the Impact of the Stimulus Package with Economic Models

It’s been nearly a year since the stimulus package of 2009 was passed. Unfortunately most attempts to answer the question “What was the size of the impact?” are still based on economic models in which the answer is built-in, and … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact

Jobs Saved: PR or Fact?

While the unemployment rate continues to rise–to 10.2 percent in October–the debate over the “jobs saved” concept also continues, most recently on last Sunday’s Meet the Press with host David Gregory asking Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner whether the concept is … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact