Category Archives: Stimulus Impact

Larry Summers and I debated “Did Fiscal Stimulus Help the Economy?” at Harvard this week. There was no video streaming or recording, and I will not try to summarize the back and forth (which the overflow crowd seemed to enjoy), … Continue reading →

Simulations of Mark Zandi’s economic model, which are reported in the press to show that a new temporary stimulus package will create 1.9 million jobs, are being touted as evidence that it will work. This is the same type of model simulation that predicted … Continue reading →

Congress was busy working on fiscal policy today. This morning, over on the House side, it held its first hearing on President Obama’s fiscal stimulus proposal. As one of the witnesses, I argued that the fiscal policy responses thus far to the unemployment … Continue reading →

Here is my New York Times oped Not More of the Same on why it is urgent to change the course of economic policy. My critique of Keynesian countercyclical policy, which is summarized in the NYT article, has been challenged by Fred Bergsten of the Peterson … Continue reading →

Sunday’s Weekend Edition on NPR gave listeners a chance to hear different economic views on how to reduce the high unemployment rate. Joe Stiglitz represented the view that we need another deficit-financed stimulus package with more spending now and tax increases later. … Continue reading →

Paul Krugman writes (citing Noah Smith) that he agrees with the empirical findings in my critique of the revival of Keynesian activism in the 2000s (the stimulus packages of 2001, 2008 and 2009). In particular, he writes that “it’s far … Continue reading →

Predictions made in early 2009 about whether the stimulus package would work varied widely because the models used to make the predictions varied widely. Models used by Christy Romer and Jared Bernstein predicted large effects of the 2009 stimulus (ARRA), … Continue reading →

The data are now clear. Despite its large size, the 2009 U.S. stimulus package failed to increase government infrastructure spending or other government purchases as its promoters had claimed it would. The large federal stimulus grants sent to state and … Continue reading →

Two years ago this week the 2009 stimulus package was enacted into law, and, to examine its effects, the House Committee on Oversight—Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs held a hearing chaired by Jim Jordan of Ohio and ranking Member Dennis Kucinich … Continue reading →

Data from the Department of Commerce show that short-term stimulus funds did not go to increase federal purchases, or state and local purchases, or even consumption purchases by much over the past few years. Thus the packages did not materially … Continue reading →