Author Archives: John Taylor
Taylor Rule (the book) Now Near Zero Bound with Forward Guidance
Like the Fed, the Hoover Press is experimenting with an extraordinary and unprecedented policy. It’s setting a key price very close to the zero lower bound and holding it there for a while. To be specific, the Press is having … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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A Way to Avoid the Fiscal Cliff without Creating Another One
So far the fiscal cliff debate has mainly been about whether tax revenues should be on or off the table with little mention of spending. But the economics of the debate—as distinct from the raw politics—make no sense without considering … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
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A Simple Rule for Monetary Policy After 20 Years
It was 20 years ago today at a conference in Pittsburgh that I first presented what is now called the Taylor rule. Here’s the November 1992 Stanford working paper. It’s nearly impossible to predict which ideas will be picked up … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Milton Friedman and the Power of Monetary Ideas
Last Friday the University of Chicago hosted a wonderful Centennial Celebration of Milton Friedman and the Power of Ideas. All of the speakers, especially Jim Heckman, Kevin Murphy, Bob Lucas, and Gary Becker chose to focus on how amazingly well … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy
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Strengthening of America
Many have been asking me to write more about the fiscal cliff. As we watch the election returns today, I would keep two straightforward things in mind. First, the fiscal cliff was not created by aliens from outerspace. It is another poor … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms
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Stagnation or Real Progress?
As the presidential election campaign reaches its final crucial hours, the main issue remains the economy—unemployment, jobs, growth—and what the economic policy can do about it. Campaigning in Ohio and other swing states, President Obama says his policies have meant … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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A Slow and Declining Growth Rate Delays Prosperity
In his article “A Slow but Steady Climb to Prosperity” in today’s Wall Street Journal, Alan Blinder argues that “The U.S. economy is improving.” I wish he were right, but the data—even much of the data he mentions—do not support … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Updated White Paper on the Romney Program
It has been three months since the August 2 white paper was released on the growth and employment impacts of Governor Romney’s economic program in comparison with President Obama’s program. Much has happened since then, so an update of the white … Continue reading
Posted in Regulatory Policy
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A Monetary Historian’s Delight
A fascinating and useful new e-book, The Bretton Woods Transcripts, has just been published by the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). It is the first publication of the transcripts of the famous international meeting that took place nearly 70 years … Continue reading
Posted in International Economics
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Disappointing Labor Markets in the Nation and in Key States
Earlier this year the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (p 36-37) pointed out that much of recent decline in the national unemployment rate has been due to an unusually large decline in the labor force participation rate. Of course, people … Continue reading
Posted in Slow Recovery
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Economics One 