Author Archives: John Taylor

Debate Heats Up: Re-Normalize or New-Normalize Policy

Last week’s IMF conference on Monetary Policy in the New Normal revealed a lot of disagreement on the key issue of where policy should be headed in the future. A dispute that broke out between me and Adair Turner is one … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Policy

A First Meeting of Old and New Keynesian Econometric Models

Lawrence Klein who died last October at age 93 is most remembered for the “creation of econometric models and the application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” as the Nobel Prize committee put it in the 1980 … Continue reading

Posted in Teaching Economics

New Research Bolsters Link from Policy Uncertainty to Economy

Some continue to blame the great recession and the weak recovery on some intrinsic failure of the market system, the latest supposed market failure being a so-called “secular stagnation” due to a dearth of investment opportunities and glut of saving. … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

Transparency for Policy Wonks

This week the Federal Reserve Board posted for the first time its FRB/US policy evaluation model and related explanatory material on its website. This new transparency is good news for researchers, students and practitioners of monetary policy. Making the model available … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Policy

Where Do Policy Rules Come From?

I recently read Steve Williamson’s interpretation of what I was and was not claiming when I wrote my 1992 paper on what would come to be called the Taylor rule.  It’s quite a while ago, but I have a different … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Policy, Teaching Economics

Why the IMF’s Exceptional Access Framework is So Important

In today’s editorial on the IMF legislation before Congress the Wall Street Journal refers to my oped of several weeks ago in which I strongly criticized the IMF for breaking its own rules in its “exceptional access framework” when it made … Continue reading

Posted in International Economics

You Can’t Connect the [Fed’s] Dots Looking Forward

Many commentators view last week’s Fed meeting (including the FOMC statement, the Chair’s press conference, commentary from FOMC members) as another move toward more discretion and away from rules-based policy. Their reasoning is mainly based on the Fed’s change in … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Policy

Why Still No Real Jobs Takeoff?

For each month of this recovery, I’ve been tracking the change in the employment-to-population ratio and comparing it with the recovery from the previous deep recession in the 1980s.  Here is the latest update based on today’s release of February … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

The 2014 G20 Growth Agenda and the 2003 G7 Agenda for Growth

At their meeting in Sydney last month the G20 announced a promising new “G20 Growth Agenda.” They centered the initiative on a goal of raising real GDP by over $2 trillion (see communique paragraph 3) compared with current projections by … Continue reading

Posted in International Economics

Why It’s Hard to Make the Unpopular Stimulus Look Good

Some columnists have been using the 5-year anniversary of the 2009 discretionary fiscal stimulus package to claim that it worked to jump-start the economy.  It’s a tough case to make.  The very word “stimulus” has become a dirty word because … Continue reading

Posted in Stimulus Impact