Category Archives: Slow Recovery

Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis

A year ago today, the Hoover Institution and the Brookings Institution held an unusual joint conference on the financial crisis, where twenty-four economists and legal scholars reexamined the crisis, its effect on the US economy, and possible policy reforms. The … Continue reading

Posted in Financial Crisis, Slow Recovery

The American Economy: Turtle or Caged Eagle?

Last week I was on a panel with Stanford President John Hennessy and Congressman Paul Ryan at the new Hoover Institution Offices in Washington. Al Hunt moderated the discussion which focused on policies to raise economic growth. The video is … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery, Teaching Economics

New Research Bolsters Link from Policy Uncertainty to Economy

Some continue to blame the great recession and the weak recovery on some intrinsic failure of the market system, the latest supposed market failure being a so-called “secular stagnation” due to a dearth of investment opportunities and glut of saving. … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

Why Still No Real Jobs Takeoff?

For each month of this recovery, I’ve been tracking the change in the employment-to-population ratio and comparing it with the recovery from the previous deep recession in the 1980s.  Here is the latest update based on today’s release of February … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

First Principles Versus Secular Stagnation

With real GDP and employment data now in for all of 2013, the recovery still looks about as weak as ever. Sure, it’s good news that growth picked up again in the 3rd and 4th quarter, but  the three updated … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms, Slow Recovery

Will the Real “Secular Stagnation Thesis” Please Stand Up

Last Thursday I published an oped in the Wall Street Journal criticizing the new “secular stagnation” view as put forth by Larry Summers in a talk at an IMF conference in November. The topic was also the focus of debate at … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

Two Amazing Charts

Research by Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin is providing solid evidence that the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 has been due to cyclical factors–the recession and slow recovery–rather than to demographic factors.  In other words, the … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery