Category Archives: Slow Recovery

New Research Bolsters Link from Policy Uncertainty to Economy

Some continue to blame the great recession and the weak recovery on some intrinsic failure of the market system, the latest supposed market failure being a so-called “secular stagnation” due to a dearth of investment opportunities and glut of saving. … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

Why Still No Real Jobs Takeoff?

For each month of this recovery, I’ve been tracking the change in the employment-to-population ratio and comparing it with the recovery from the previous deep recession in the 1980s.  Here is the latest update based on today’s release of February … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

First Principles Versus Secular Stagnation

With real GDP and employment data now in for all of 2013, the recovery still looks about as weak as ever. Sure, it’s good news that growth picked up again in the 3rd and 4th quarter, but  the three updated … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy and Reforms, Slow Recovery

Will the Real “Secular Stagnation Thesis” Please Stand Up

Last Thursday I published an oped in the Wall Street Journal criticizing the new “secular stagnation” view as put forth by Larry Summers in a talk at an IMF conference in November. The topic was also the focus of debate at … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

Two Amazing Charts

Research by Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin is providing solid evidence that the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 has been due to cyclical factors–the recession and slow recovery–rather than to demographic factors.  In other words, the … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

Krugman’s Slack

In a piece yesterday, Paul Krugman disagrees with my assessment that there was more overheating than slack in the economy in the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession and financial crisis. That assessment was one part of a broader … Continue reading

Posted in Financial Crisis, Slow Recovery

The Problem is Policy Not a Secular Decline in the Real Interest Rate

Larry Summers’ recent talk on what ails the US economy  at the November 8 IMF conference is getting a lot of attention. I first heard Larry present his argument at the October 1 Brookings-Hoover conference organized by Martin Baily and me, and … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

The Uncertainty Debate: Now a Hot Research Topic

The impact of uncertainty—in particular policy uncertainty—is a hot topic of debate in the press and the blogosphere.  So the Dallas Fed decided to hold a conference last week to explore the issue. Nick Bloom of Stanford, Tom Fomby of … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

With Better Policy, the Recovery Could Have Been V-Shaped

Some are still arguing that the prolonged slow recovery from the deep recession of 2007-09 was to be expected. Fast rebounds, or V-shaped recoveries, are a thing of the past, they argue, citing the recovery from the 2001 recession as … Continue reading

Posted in Slow Recovery

My Take on the Middle-Out View

Here is my Wall Street Journal column.  If you’re interested in the of path of incomes year by year, the chart below shows real income growth for the 90% and 10% income groups. The data come from Emanuel Saez’s web … Continue reading

Posted in Regulatory Policy, Slow Recovery